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Economists are losing it over how bad things are and that’s not even the worst part

The ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has sunk the global economy so deeply in the mire that economists are now seemingly throwing down their pencils in frustration. On Thursday, analysts at JPMorgan said that they don’t have a baseline view of oil markets for the first time since the start of the conflict. 

“We simply don’t know how to model the endgame,” Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy, said in a note. According to CNBC, analysts at JPMorgan assumed there were some economic red lines the U.S. would not cross, and that President Donald Trump would be forced to come to a deal with Iran. But close to seven months later, most of those red lines — including oil hitting more than $100 a barrel, gasoline nearing $5 a gallon at the pump or 10-year Treasury yields above 5% — have already been crossed, “yet the exit strategy is less clear, not more,” Kaneva said.

Earlier this month, diesel prices climbed above $6 per gallon in the U.S. for the first time ever, with costs expected to rise as winter approaches, a season of peak demand for the fuel. Meanwhile, oil stockpiles continue dropping toward record lows, as highlighted by a new analysis from the S&P Global Energy Fuels and Refining team that warned “winter is coming for diesel markets.”

“Inventories are low, spare refining capacity is scarce, and seasonal demand is about to strengthen at exactly the wrong moment,” Karim Fawaz, the executive director at S&P Global Energy, said in the analysis, according to trade publication Rigzone.

Maybe it’s bad news when even the economists quit pretending that everything will be fine. The Iran war continues to be a disaster, chosen by Trump of his own free will. He could also choose to stop bombing at any moment. But on Thursday he indicated he might double down on the stupidity, telling Axios "I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them [the Iranian regime] or do I not? It's a big decision. Anything could happen with me."  

Anything but peace, I imagine. The previous day, Trump recycled an old line, claiming that the Iranians “want to make a deal.” Given how many times we’ve heard that one before, I’m just not convinced. Economic forecasts for the coming months continue to be grim as fighting in the Middle East intensifies. A drone attack that heavily damaged one of Saudi Arabia’s pipelines is expected to cause crude oil exports to fall by 400,000 barrels per day this month. That’s just one of countless reasons why energy prices are predicted to keep spiking. More war clearly isn’t helping, yet Trump is now promising to sell 48 F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia. Just what everyone needs.

But honestly, who cares about gas prices and grocery bills? The most severe cost in war is always human and Trump’s aggression in the Middle East has resulted in an estimated 1,800 to 3,800 civilian deaths. On Thursday, the U.N.’s top human rights body reported “reasonable grounds” to believe that the U.S. committed war crimes in Iran, citing two strikes, including one on a school in the southern city of Minab that killed 150 people, including 120 children. A White House spokesperson responded that the human rights body has “accomplished nothing for human rights while spouting unserious nonsense for decades.” While the focus on bottom lines and costs at the pump are understandable, I don’t need baffled economists to know that Trump’s war is born of absolute insanity.

What do you think? Leave a comment, send me a note with your thoughts at [email protected] or say hello on Bluesky.

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